Questions About 3-PEAT
I do not quite understand the 3PEAT modeling data result. Is the
disposable income listed for each year the amount of money that I can safely
spend that year? So, in my model are we saying that the mean amount of
money I can spend each year is $120,000 in today's money?
You have 3-PEAT by the wrong end of the stick.
ORP's Withdrawal Report is a projection into the future, using fixed rates for various things such a rates of returns on savings. If you invest conservatively, with rates more or less approximating ORP's fixed rates then this is a reasonable forward looking report. If you follow the 3-PEAT method then only the first line of the Withdrawal Report contains any actionable information.
The 3-PEAT simulator is backward looking and has no predictive relevance at all. All it says is if you go back in time, to year 2000 in your case, then this is how your particular plan would have behaved. Would your retirement plan have been safe? The only thing of interest that the simulator's report provides is that if, starting in 2000, had you followed the 3-PEAT procedure:
- Would your savings run out of money?
- How many years did disposable income fall below your essential spending level.
Don't read any more into it than that. You and the stock market will never again see this particular set of returns so there is no decision making relevance in there.
The main 3-PEAT simulation report is in nominal dollars, i.e. inflation has not been removed. These are the numbers that the 3-PEAT practitioners see every year while executing the 3-PEAT method.
The summary at the bottom is in real dollars, i.e. inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, has been removed. When processing data across time if inflation is not removed then the recent data would carry more weight than historical data which would bias the results.
What are the advantages and disadvantages of Monte Carlo compared to
3-PEAT? It's the same data and the same period under examination. I
recognize that MC looks at every n-year period in the entire data set whereas
3-PEAT looks at one n-year period.
First off, 3-PEAT is a method for managing retirement income whereby:
- the retiree tells ORP of her current financial situation
- ORP computes an optimal, constant spending plan for the remaining years of retirement, and
- the retiree implements the plan's decision variables from the first year of ORP's new plan.
Each year the retiree repeats these three steps.
The 3-PEAT simulator simulates the actions taken by a 3-PEAT practitioner over some historical period.
The Monte Carlo method (MC) (a simulator) and 3-PEAT's simulator address retirement spending from two different directions. MC computes a statistical report summarizing many constant spending levels for randomly generated rates of return. MC offers no clues as to how it arrived at its results.
The 3-PEAT simulator's value is that it reports important decision variables such as annual savings withdrawals, disposable income, and estimated taxes for each simulated year. The 3-STEP simulator reports these decision variables in the context of the economic environment in which they were made. This information does not exist in MC.
Secondly, a true Monte Carlo method does not rely on historical data because that data is actually a small. not particularly representative, sample of a much larger universe of possible outcomes. A true MC (such as ORP's) will generate random values that hopefully are characteristic of the full range of outcomes.
It is well to remember that while MC generates probabilities of success (or failure) of constant spending plans, your retirement has only one success or failure outcome.
When I ran ORP's Constant Consumption a report was produced that
detailed my annual spending as X. In reality, I understand that the annual
spending changes. So, in which year or years am I allowed to spend X? How
does that annual spending change from year #1 through the end of plan?
Let's change your word "allowed" to "plan". Then your expectation is that you spend "X" every year of retirement, indexed to inflation. Of course, blindly spending the same amount every year implies equally blindly withdrawing a constant amount from savings every year without regard to changing market conditions and your personal situation. This offers a high probability of prematurely depleting your savings -- plan failure.
3-PEAT's alternative is that if you can accommodate variability in your actual annual spending then plan failure can be avoided altogether.
The reality is that you make decisions and take action for this year only. Next year, under the 3-PEAT method, you run ORP again, produce a new constant disposable income plan, now one year shorter. Again, you make decisions and take actions for just one year, but made in context of a new plan. Because of changes to external, environmental variables your new plan will differ from year 2 of last year's plan.
The 3-PEAT simulator simulates the 3-PEAT method for as many years as your planned retirement. Whereas ORP uses constants for savings rates of returns, bond interest, inflation, and Social Security's COLA, 3-PEAT solves an LP problem for each year of retirement using historical data for these values. ORP projects the future using constant data while 3-PEAT demonstrates what would have happen had your retirement begun in 1935, or 1984, or whenever. You want to know your if under these economic conditions did your plan fail:
- Wear your savings be prematurely deplete?
- Did your disposable income fall below your essential spending needs.
The simulator addresses these questions for a particular sequence of historical data, anecdotal evidence, if you will, but still evidence.
Modeling the After-tax Account
My After-tax Account is invested in solid dividend paying stocks. 60% of
its returns are from dividends and 40% are from value appreciation. How do
I model this in ORP?
ORP's view of the after-tax account is that it contains stocks and bonds. Stocks get turned over annually, profits are taxed as capital gains, and taxes are paid as incurred. The stock portfolio return is in the form of capital gains profits that stay in the account and compound.
Bonds' annual interest is taxed as personal income, contributes to disposable income, and the bonds are held to maturity and redeemed at their original investment value. The ratio of stock and bonds in the account is held to target throughout retirement. ORP further assumes that through active asset management that account value volatility is low so that the constant rate of return is a reasonable assumption.
Your mission is to characterize to ORP the behavior of your after-tax account so that it looks the way it actually behaves. ORP provides you with knobs that can be adjusted to approximate that. The knobs are % of the account held in stocks, % held in bonds, stock rate of return, bond interest rate, and cost basis.
With the glide path parameters, you might characterize the account as 60% bonds where the dividends are construed as interest and assets are sold for their purchase price. The remaining 40% is stocks where there are no dividends but with capital gains profits. In other words by setting the percentage of stocks and bonds in the account, and coming up with rates of return and interest rates that are reflective, not of a pure stock/bond situation, but of the behavior of your investments. I realize this is a hell of a load to dump on the casual ORP user but that is the best I can offer. (This sort of fudging goes on in the Operations Research world all the time.) It doesn't matter what you call it as long as its behavior is characteristic of the situation being modeled.
Timing of Actual Withdrawals and Paying Taxes
Why does ORP have me taking a substantial amount out of my tax
deferred account for the first year of retirement, paying taxes on it, then
putting what I don't spend in my after tax account? This yields a very large
tax bill in year one
Starting at age 70 you have $102K of other income (Social Security income and your pension) coming in and an equal RMD. That's $204K of money that has to go somewhere. $30K is going to taxes and $160K is your after inflation lid on spending. That leaves roughly a $15K surplus. ORP's only option at this point is to stuff it into the after-tax account.
Since you have capped spending, ORP goes into its maximize estate mode which means it's only too happy to push your surplus into the after-tax account. It also means that ORP will honor the RMD but as it does so it will try to leave as much as possible in the tax-deferred account without breaking any IRS regulations and while minimizing taxes, i.e. keeping your taxable income in the 28% bracket. (Your heirs, not you, pay taxes on estate money left in the tax-deferred account, thereby reducing your tax burden while increasing theirs. Their taxes are outside the model, ORP is reducing your taxes.)
This leaves your original question: "What is going on before age 70, before the RMD and before Social Security income?" This is where life gets complicated. ORP prefers to pay taxes early in the plan, rather than later; up to a point. In your case the "point" is the top of the 25% bracket. ORP is attempting to keep taxable income at the top of the 25% bracket and failing; there is quite a bit of leakage into the 28% bracket. Except for ages 66-70. Your taxable income, after all transfers, in the first year is at the top of the top of 33% bracket and at the top of the 28% bracket for ages 67-70. After age 70, ORP is working the top of the 25% bracket, while minimizing withdrawals to build up the estate.
The force behind ORP's desire to pay taxes early is that tax brackets' upper bounds grow at the rate of inflation (2.5%) and savings grow at the Rate of Return (7%). Thus, in the lower brackets ORP pays taxes to the top of a lower bracket early in the plan. But the ROR higher than inflation means that money taken out of the tax-deferred account later in the plan will, after a point (28%), will be taxed at a higher rate than money in the after-tax account.
As an experiment, if you set your inflation rate equal to your ROR you will cool ORP's enthusiasm for doing early transfers.
The message here is that ORP is doing a balancing act amongst conflicting requirements and coming down somewhere in the middle, which is what optimization is all about.
You might consider allowing Roth conversions. It probably won't have that much effect on your estate size but it may leave your estate more favorably situated from your heirs' economic point of view.
ORP's results may be intuitively uncomfortable but ORP's mission is to make you aware of and to get you thinking about issues like this even though you may decide not to act on ORP's results.
I am going to start withdrawing from my retirement savings this year. I
plan to do Roth conversions at the end of the year and to start selling Aftertax
assets right now, I plan to sell $10K at a time or as we need them for
income. Since I'm going to half what I will owe in capital gains withheld by
Vanguard, how much should I sell?
ORP assumes that the After-tax account pays each year's taxes as it goes. That is, your taxes are up to date when you make your withdrawal and no additional taxes are due on this account. When it gets down to estimating actual withdrawals and actual taxes there are several programs around to help you; Quicken, Turbo Tax, and their ilk. The timing of withdrawals and conversions is up to you. ORP works on an annual basis and assume everything, except change in market value, takes place at the first of the year.
ORP is not an accounting program, it generates guidelines.
Maintaining original asset allocations in accounts.
Is there a way to set ORP's asset allocation initially and include
rebalancing so that the asset allocation for the portfolio as a whole remains
specified rather than each individual fund-type?
You are proposing that ORP should withdraw from the accounts in the same proportion as the original balances, to maintain the same ratio of balances in all 3 accounts. Money can flow from the IRA to the Roth or the taxable account but that upsets the proportioning. Account balances have to be maintained by predefined withdrawal scheduling ignoring taxes and all there rest of that economic stuff.
That is a different calculator than ORP. It can be implemented with a spreadsheet.
Federal Tax Report Looks Funny
The problem I see is in the "last year" row of the tax table. Half of the max
in the 10% column gets shifted to the 15% column. Why is that?
You specified that both you and your spouse leave the plan at age 92 (the default). Your spouse is one year younger than you. When you hit age 92 you leave the plan and your spouse stays, for your age 93. Her income is reduced and she becomes a single person and is taxed accordingly. Hence the discontinuity.
Separation of Spouse Accounts.
In its reports ORP lumps both the retiree and spouse tax deferred
accounts together. When making a withdrawal, does it matter which account
the withdrawal comes from, especially regarding a Roth Conversion? The
retiree (me) has only 3 years to convert while my wife has several more
Internally ORP treats the retiree and spouse IRAs separately. Same for Roth. Not so for Aftertax. From the perspective of how ORP is used it doesn't matter which account you withdraw from. Your withdrawal decisions are only for this year. Next year, when you run ORP to do mid course corrections, your withdrawal decisions will be reflected in your updated account balances and ORP will proceed from there. Generally speaking decision implementations are just for this year, made in the context of ORP's overall plan.
Unnecessary IRA Distributions
My pension and Social Security income significantly exceed my spending
needs. I have no wish to draw on my savings, notably my IRA and Roth IRA.
Why does ORP do three years of IRA to Roth conversions at the start of
retirement even though it makes no Roth distributions?
The cause is the IRA Required Minimum Distribution (RMD).
The purpose of the RMD is to drive the IRA balance down over retirement so that the IRS can collect the taxes that were deferred on contributions. Taxes are paid annually on IRA withdrawals, based on the IRA balance. ORP reduces taxes on RMD withdrawals by lowering the IRA balance early in retirement, first by conversions, followed by withdrawals above the RMD level. After mid retirement IRA withdrawals are pegged to the RMD.
At the same time ORP maximizes the IRA balance at the end of the plan because no taxes are required on TD account funds left in the in the estate. (Or rather taxes become a problem for the heirs.)
In general, early IRA to Roth conversions reduce taxes in the latter part of the plan at the expense of taxes very early on. There is enough to this topic to warrant a scholarly paper:
Strange Savings Withdrawal Patterns
When I use the Spend option to put an upper bound on spending
I keep getting a withdrawal
report indicating that I should withdrawal from my tax-deferred account
many thousands of dollars more than I need to spend for the entire year
during the first four or five years.
Remember, ORP is an optimizer and not a calculator. As an
optimizer ORP tries to maximize something.
If you fix your estate ORP will maximize your annual,
after tax, disposable income.
If you put an upper bound on your spending ORP will
maximize your final total asset balance.
cap your annual spending then ORP may engage in all
manner of inexplicable, unnatural
acts as it maximizes your Final Total Asset Balance. As you
observed early in your plan ORP transfered tax-deferred
withdrawals to your after-tax account, absorbing
the tax consequences in the process.
This is a consequence of the constant spending assumption.
The sensible way to use ORP, the 3-PEAT way, is to remember
that there is a difference between the end of your plan and
your life expectancy. Your planning horizon, the term of
your plan, is a conservative statement of your best case
longevity scenario. Your life expectancy is younger than
that, and the Asset Balance report shows your anticipated
estate for each year of the plan. Set your estate to some
value that provides a buffer in case you outlive your term.
Then let ORP maximize your spending; this is a projected
upper bound on your budget for each year of the plan. You
are not required to spend it all, just don't plan on spending
more. With 3-PEAT these numbers apply only for one year, any
unspent funds will increase your savings for the following